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The future climate depends largely on the socio-economic development of humanity - how much greenhouse gas emissions will change, how the world's population will change, whether forest cover will increase and what measures countries will take to reduce pollution from their industries, etc. Climate models are a key tool for assessing future climate change.
 

Projections show that by the end of this century, average annual temperatures in Lithuania will increase from 1.2℃ in the more optimistic scenario to 2.8℃ in the more pessimistic scenario. The highest warming is expected in December-January (3.9-4.4℃) and the lowest in May-July (1.9-2.1℃).
 

The number of cold days with daily minimum temperatures below -15 °C will fall from 9.5 days to 3 days in the more optimistic scenario and to 4.8 days in the more pessimistic scenario, to an average of 4.7 cold days per year by the end of the century.
 

The average duration of heatwaves is also projected to increase, from the current 2 to 7 days per year. The projected average increase in precipitation in Lithuania ranges from 42 mm or 6% in the more optimistic scenario to 98 mm or 14% in the more pessimistic scenario.
 

You are invited to take a closer look at climate change projections for Lithuania by the end of the century HERE. This is the first time that climate change projections at the municipal level have been prepared in such detail in Lithuania. They are expected to help municipalities adapt to climate change and prepare for emergencies.
 

The forecasts have been prepared by the Ministry of the Environment implementing the ClimAdapt-LT project, funded by the Norwegian Financial Mechanism's Environment, Energy, Climate Change Programme. The implementation of the programme is supervised by the Central Project Management Agency (CPVA).